Baseball is one of the most popular sports to bet on in the United States and around the world. With 162 games in the regular MLB season, there are abundant opportunities for bettors to try to profit. According to betting statistics, baseball accounts for 22% of all sports wagers and is second only to football in popularity. During the MLB playoffs, baseball betting can account for over 40% of the sports betting market.
The long baseball season and huge number of games provide a major advantage for knowledgeable bettors. The high volume of opportunities makes it easier to identify value and exploit lines that may be off. Savvy baseball bettors often focus on trends, advanced stats, and matchup advantages to gain an edge over recreational bettors and sportsbooks alike. While beginner’s luck can work for a time, long-term profits require learning betting strategy and how to analyze teams properly.
Basic betting strategies for baseball include wagering more on underdogs, betting against public biases, targeting reliable pitchers, and adjusting bets based on line movements. However, there are many advanced strategies to give you an edge. Properly approaching bankroll management is also key. This guide will explore the intricacies of betting on MLB and how you can consistently profit on America’s pastime.
Lines and Odds
There are several common ways to bet on baseball games. The most basic is the moneyline, which is a bet on which team will win the game. Moneyline odds are expressed with a + and – sign to indicate the underdog and favorite. For example, if the Yankees are -200 favorites over the Red Sox (+180), you would need to bet $200 on the Yankees to win $100. If you bet $100 on the Red Sox, you would win $180. The higher the number, the bigger the underdog.
Run lines work similarly to a point spread in other sports. The run line is usually set at 1.5 runs, meaning the favorite must win by 2 or more runs to “cover the spread.” Odds are adjusted based on the run line. For example, the Yankees could be -1.5 runs (-130) against the +1.5 runs Red Sox (+110). You would win the bet on the Yankees if they win by 2 or more runs.
Totals, also known as over/unders, are bets on the total number of runs scored by both teams. Sportsbooks set a line with odds, such as Over 8 runs (-110) vs Under 8 runs (-110). If you bet the over, both teams must combine to score 9 or more runs to win.
Where to Bet
When it comes to betting on baseball, you have a few different options:
Online Sportsbooks
Online sportsbooks like FanDuel and DraftKings allow you to bet on MLB games from anywhere. These sites offer bettors a wide variety of wager types including moneylines, run lines, totals, futures, and props. Sportsbooks will also have competitive odds and betting lines. You can often get the best value by comparing lines across multiple online books.
Local Bookies
Using a local bookie is another way to bet on baseball. Local bookmakers may offer more personalized service and betting options. However, they are operating illegally, so there are risks involved. You may not get paid out on winning wagers. It’s also hard to compare lines and odds to find the best value.
Daily Fantasy Sites
Daily fantasy sports (DFS) sites like FanDuel and DraftKings let you build lineups of MLB players and win cash prizes based on their stats each day. DFS involves more skill compared to traditional sports betting’s luck factor. You’ll need to study stats, trends, matchups, and injuries to build optimal lineups under a salary cap.
Betting Strategies
When betting on baseball, having a solid strategy is key to long-term profitability.
Here are some of the most effective baseball betting strategies to consider:
Fading the public – Often referred to as “betting against the public,” this strategy involves identifying which team the majority of bettors are backing and then placing your bet on the other team. The public often bets with their heart rather than their head, so fading them can give you an edge. Be sure to check betting percentages to identify which team the public favors.
Betting limits – Many novice bettors make the mistake of wagering too much on individual games. It’s important to only bet 1-5% of your bankroll on any single game. This ensures you don’t wipe out your bankroll on one bad beat.
Managing bankroll – Your betting bankroll should be money you can afford to lose. Build it up slowly over time by betting small units and reinvesting winnings. Have a budget for how much you’ll wager per week or month. Avoid chasing losses by increasing your bet size. Stick to your bankroll management strategy.
Betting on Favorites
Betting on favorites in baseball can be profitable if done strategically. When considering betting a favorite, focus on the strength of their starting pitcher and whether they have home field advantage. Strong starting pitching gives favorites a significant edge, especially if they are pitching at home. Look at the starting pitcher’s recent stats and history against the opponent to gauge their likely performance.
Additionally, always check if the favorite has value. Big favorites with short moneyline odds (e.g. -200 or less) often do not provide enough potential return to justify the risk. Consider betting on favorites selectively when they have a clear pitching or home field advantage against weaker opponents.
Betting on Underdogs
Betting on underdogs can offer tremendous value in baseball betting if you know when and how to spot opportunities. Underdogs win around 44% of MLB games, so there is profit potential in identifying spots where the underdog is incorrectly priced by oddsmakers.
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When underdogs have value: Look for situations like favorable pitching matchups, injuries/rest to key players on the favorite, or bad recent form for the favored team. Also, some teams match up better head-to-head against opponents despite being underdogs on paper.
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Spotting mismatches: Study how teams perform against lefties versus righties, at home versus away, and during day versus night games. Identify mismatches where the underdog has an edge that oddsmakers may have overlooked.
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Considering momentum: Teams on long winning or losing streaks tend to see regression towards the mean. Fade hot favorites and back cold underdogs following streaks of 3+ games.
Betting intelligently on underdogs based on value, mismatches, and momentum can lead to consistent profits in MLB betting. Always shop for the best price on the underdog across multiple sportsbooks as well.
Player and Team Props
Individual player props and team props offer more ways to bet on baseball. With player props, you are betting on outcomes for specific players like how many hits or strikeouts a batter will record in a game.
Some popular MLB player props include:
- Total hits for a player
- Total home runs for a player
- Total bases for a player
- Total strikeouts for a pitcher
When betting player props, look at recent stats and trends for that player along with the matchup against the opposing pitcher. Focus on how that pitcher has performed against lefties or righties if betting on a hitter. Also consider ballpark factors like if the game is being played in a hitter-friendly or pitcher-friendly park.
With team props, you are betting on outcomes for the entire team across a season.
Examples of MLB team props include:
- Regular season win total for a team
- Whether a team will make the playoffs
- Series betting like who will win a 3-game series
When betting on team win totals, look at offseason roster changes and projections for how a team’s pitching and offense will perform. For series betting, consider head-to-head records and pitching matchups for that series [2].
In general, props offer more ways to bet on specific elements of a game. By focusing on a narrower outcome, you can find betting value on props versus just picking the moneyline or total.
Live In-Game Betting
Live in-game betting allows you to place bets in real-time as a baseball game unfolds. This type of betting has gained popularity in recent years as sportsbooks have embraced mobile betting technology. With live betting, you can wager on updated odds and lines as the game situation changes.
The main advantage of live betting is you can capitalize on betting opportunities that emerge during the game. For example, if a team’s star pitcher gets injured early and has to leave the game, you could bet against them as their odds get longer. You can also hedge your original bets if the game isn’t going as expected. The constantly shifting odds and ability to react in real-time make live betting exciting.
However, there are risks too. Live betting requires paying close attention to the game and quick decision making. The evolving odds can shift against you rapidly. It’s also easy to overtrade and make reckless bets in the heat of the moment.
Here are some tips for successful live betting:
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Stick to betting on teams, players, and matchups you know well. It helps to have strong MLB knowledge.
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Have a sense of the average odds and look for outlier opportunities. For example, if a star batter normally has +150 odds to hit a home run, but is +400 during a game, that’s likely a good bet.
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Don’t chase losses and stay disciplined. It’s better to miss an opportunity than make an emotional bet trying to recoup money.
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Manage your bankroll carefully and bet small fractions of it at a time. Live betting lends itself to overspending.
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Use live betting to hedge original bets, not just place more action. This helps manage risk.
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Know when to stop. There will always be another game and more chances tomorrow.
Managing Your Bankroll
Managing your bankroll is crucial for long-term success when betting on baseball. Having a smart budget and bet sizing system in place, as well as the discipline to follow it, will help you survive the inevitable ups and downs.
When budgeting your bankroll, most experts recommend having at least 30-50 times your average bet size available. This provides enough of a cushion to withstand losing streaks. Decide on a total budget based on what you can comfortably afford to risk long-term.
Be sure to use proper bet sizing relative to your bankroll. A general guideline is to risk no more than 1-5% of your total bankroll on any single wager. This percentage should decrease as your bankroll grows. Spreading bets across multiple games can further minimize risk.
Having the discipline to walk away when you hit your loss limit for the day or week is also essential. Avoid chasing losses by increasing bet sizes. Stick to your budgeted amount per session. Taking breaks when on a cold streak resets emotions and prevents destructive betting patterns.
With the right conservative budget, smart bet sizing, and disciplined habits, you can stretch your bankroll over the long run and maximize your chances for profitability.
Final Tips
When betting on baseball, it’s important to keep a few final tips in mind to stay disciplined and enjoy the experience:
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Do your research – Study stats, trends, matchups, and insights to make informed bets. Don’t just randomly pick teams.
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Don’t chase losses – Stick to your betting strategy even after losses. Chasing losses leads to irrational bets trying to break even.
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Have fun – Baseball betting should be exciting and entertaining. Maintain perspective and don’t bet more than you can afford to lose.
Betting on baseball takes knowledge and discipline. By doing thorough research, avoiding emotional bets, and keeping perspective, you’ll enjoy baseball betting success. Don’t let losses or greed cloud your judgement – stay rational and keep a long-term mindset.
